Based on the latest survey of Al-Rafidain Center for Dialogue
No Iraqi list and alliance gets more than 60 seats

April 17, 2018 at 2:45 am

Kirkuk, 2014. IHEC center for counting votes. Photo: Karwan Salihi

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Based on the latest survey of Al-Rafidain Center for Dialogue, the Shiite component votes will increase in the coming Iraqi parliament election, in contrast, the Kurds and Sunni components votes will decline. Meanwhile, no list and alliance will be able to exceed sixty seats.

The mentioned center is an independent and intellectual agora to promote and generate political, cultural, and economic dialogues, and its estimation for the coming election is based on a widely conducted survey of all the social classes in Iraq.

Shiite votes will increase

National Iraqi Alliance’s seats will rise from 183 seats to 190 according to the survey results. Moreover, it is pointed out in the survey results that Victory alliance led by Haider Al Abadi, Iraqi PM, may be able to gain 48 to 50 seats while the third on the stage will be Fatah alliance led by Hadi Al Amri which is supported by Hashid and may guarantee 36 to 40 seats in parliament.

Al Sairun alliance is predicted to get 33 to 37 seats, and State of Law coalition led by Nouri Al Maliki may have around 24 seats while National Wisdom Movement led by Ammar Al Hakim may be able to get 20 seats.

Sunni’s seats will decline

Due to the displacement of Sunni component, lack of their electoral voter cards, unstable security, and demographic changes after Islamic State, based on the survey, the seats of this component will decline from 71 seats to 51-62.

National coalition led by Ayad Allawi is anticipated to get 28 to 32 seats, second in the raw will be Solution Party that may get 11 to 13 seats, and the newly formed coalition led by Osama Al Nujaifi will possibly get 10 seats whilst Nasr list is predicted to get 5 to 7 seats in the Sunni populated areas.

Predictions for Kurdish political lists in the coming election

The Kurdish political lists and coalitions have 62 seats in the Iraqi parliament, but this number may decline to 60 to 56 seats in the coming election.

Kirkuk, April 2014. Election campaigns on one of the main street on the city. Photo: Karwan Salihi

Al-Rafidain Center for Dialogue referred this decline to the loss of control by the Kurdish political parties over the disputed areas which previously were jointly ruled with the central government.

24 to 23 seats will possibly be the seats that Kurdistan Political Party may get, second on the stage will be Homeland list led by Barham Salih that may get 16 to 18 seats. Patriot Union of Kurdistan may get 14 to 15 seats, and Kurdistan Islamic Union is predicted to get three to four seats.

The survey was conducted in all the Iraqi provinces via electronic vote which over seven thousand participants voted, alongside the field projects of the teams and through consultant of 900 members of the center who are from all the ethnic, sectarian, and religious components.

The survey duration was two weeks, and the participants were between 18 to 60 years old, 82% male and 18% female, and the survey was finished on April 10th.

88 lists and alliances with over seven thousand candidates run for the coming Iraqi parliament election on May 12th to get 329 seats.

Al-Rafidain Center for Dialogue was formed in Najaf city by political, intellectual, and academic individuals in 2014, and the center is nongovernmental center.

 

 

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