The emergence of new forces in Nineveh has spoiled the game for the dominant traditional forces that there is no longer a majority. Rather, it has become necessary for those who want to form the local government to conclude a five-party agreement, which makes the task of the first winner in the Nineveh Provincial Council elections problematic.
Some see Najm (means star in Arabic) al-Jubouri, the former governor of Nineveh, as the star of the match, after he was able, through his son (Muhannad), to successfully run in the elections to become the biggest winner by winning five seats out of a total of 29 seats in the provincial council.
The votes that Muhannad Najm Al-Jubouri alone received (55,747) were perhaps a reward for his father’s efforts when he was in the position of governor. Al-Jubouri assumed the position of Governor of Nineveh on November 24, 2019, when Mosul and its outskirts were a mass of destruction as a result of the three-year ISIS war. Tens of thousands of families had not returned from displacement and were still living in camps, and when he resigned from the position of governor at the height of the election campaign on November 26, 2023, the governorate was witnessing remarkable development in terms of population growth, and the majority of the displaced had returned to their homes.
Najm al-Jubouri resigned from the position of governor after he was accused of “belonging to the Baath Party” under the Accountability and Justice Law to uproot the Baath Party. As a result, his son was placed in his place at the top of Nineveh’s list of its people.
Al-Jubouri was involved in preparing the plan to retake Tal Afar from the grip of ISIS, so he was entrusted with command of joint operations in Nineveh Governorate from April 2015 until mid-2019 before he was referred for retirement. One of Al-Jubouri's qualities was his closeness to the people and his presence among them.
In these elections, Al-Jubouri entered the competition with a list of Nineveh for its people, which included 52 candidates, and his list came in first place in the governorate.
According to the preliminary results of the provincial council elections, published by the Independent High Electoral Commission on Tuesday, December 19, Al-Jubouri, as a new force, was able to triumph over the traditional alliances and win five seats and one base.
But Al-Jubouri's task is not easy, because if he insists that the governor's position go to his list, which is his right, he will need the votes of 10 other members of the council, which will require allying with four other entities.
The Nineveh Governorate Council consists of 29 seats, and according to the election law, obtaining the position of governor requires achieving a ratio of 50 + 1, that is, the votes of 15 members of the Council.
It seems that the force closest to Al-Jubouri is the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which won four seats. In 2019, Al-Jubouri assumed the position of governor with the votes of members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party - a Kurdish party headed by Masoud Barzani - as they constituted about a third of the council.
If an alliance is concluded between these two forces, Al-Jubouri will not be able to muster enough votes to win the governorship.
The third force in Nineveh is the National Contract Alliance, which is a somewhat unconventional alliance in the governorate, as it was formed by several Shiite and Sunni forces.
Introducing the Kurdistan Democratic Party KDP candidates for the provincial council elections, Nineveh, December 2023. KDP Media
The National Contract consists of three main parties: the Ataa Movement, the Iraqi Fortitude Party, and the Iraqi Islamic Party.
The Attaa Movement was founded in 2017, headed by Faleh Al-Fayyad, head of the General Authority of the Popular Mobilization Forces, but Al-Fayyad suspended his duties as head of the movement in 2022 and Khaled Kiban, a close associate of Al-Fayyad, was appointed in his place.
Some believe that Al-Fayad indirectly manages and directs the movement.
As for the Iraqi Al-Thabat Party, chaired by Sunni MP Abdul Rahim Al-Shammari, which won three seats in the council, yet it is position is not clear in terms of alliance with Al-Jubouri.
Even in the case of an alliance between Al-Jubouri, the KDP, and the National Contract to form the local government, they will need three more seats, and there is no other force that has more than two seats, so an agreement will have to be reached with two other parties.
In general, forming a local government in Nineveh into an alliance requires at least five forces, which makes Najm al-Jubouri’s task difficult.
The traditional forces in Nineveh, except the Kurdistan Democratic Party, won two seats at best.
For example, the National Resolution Alliance formed by Osama al-Nujaifi and the Iraqi Defense Minister won two seats.
Except for the quota seats, 11 parties and alliances won seats in the Nineveh Provincial Council, according to the preliminary results, including Sovereignty and Progress (two seats each), the Azm Alliance, and the Renewal Party (one seat each).
Sovereignty, headed by Khamis Al-Khanjar, and Al-Taqadum, headed by Muhammad Al-Halbousi, former speaker, were expected to win a larger number of seats.
The Shiite forces that control the Iraqi government and a large number of Iraq's governorates were able to win only two seats within the framework of the Al-Hadbaa Alliance. The most prominent forces participating in the coalition are the State of Law headed by Nouri al-Maliki, the Badr Organization headed by Hadi al-Amiri, and Sadiqoun headed by Qais al-Khazali.
The National Identity List, headed by Rayan Al-Kildani, Secretary-General of the Babylon Movement, succeeded in winning two seats in the Council. The list’s candidates were from the various ethnicities and religions of Nineveh.
The Nineveh People's Union coalition, which consisted mainly of two Kurdish forces, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan PUK, headed by Bafel Talabani, and the National Al-Rifa Party, headed by Dildar Zebari, won two seats in the provincial council.
Al-Jubouri’s list stressed during its celebrations on the night of the announcement of the preliminary results that the position of the governor would be its share, but it is not clear how they will start the game.
